Big Tech’s AI Spending War

SPY: $723.77
QQQ: $681.61
MSFT: $411.38
GOOGL: $388.43
AMZN: $273.55
NVDA: $196.50
AVGO: $427.36
AMD: $355.26
VIX: 16.43–16.42 area

Key level: QQQ above $680 keeps mega-cap AI momentum alive. A clean hold above $670 still keeps the broader AI trend intact, but $680 is the cleaner short-term line now.
SPY and QQQ were trading higher around May 6, while VIX was down near the mid-16s, showing calmer risk sentiment.

Big Tech is still spending aggressively on AI infrastructure, and that keeps the AI trade alive across two groups:

The spenders: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META
The suppliers: NVDA, AVGO, AMD, data center, power, and networking names

The spenders need future returns.
The suppliers are getting paid now.

That is the key split in this market.

MSFT is slightly softer today, while GOOGL and AMZN are holding up better. On the supplier side, AVGO and AMD are showing stronger action than NVDA, which makes the basket worth watching but not blindly chasing.

Cloud watch: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN
Supplier watch: NVDA, AVGO, AMD
Risk: AI capex getting too large / expectations already priced in
Bull case: AI demand keeps accelerating and suppliers continue confirming with price

I’m watching AVGO, AMD, and NVDA only if QQQ holds above $680 and chip names move together.

If QQQ loses $680 but holds $670, I’d slow down and treat it as a trend still alive but momentum cooling.

If only one chip name is strong, I don’t trust the basket.
If AVGO, AMD, and NVDA move together, that tells me buyers are still treating AI suppliers as a group.

A strong story tells you where to look.
Price action tells you when to act.

AI capex is the narrative.
QQQ holding key levels is the confirmation.

Question: Would you rather own the AI spenders or the AI suppliers?

This is a TradingDeck decision journal, not financial advice. The goal is not to predict the market. The goal is to think clearly before the market forces emotion into the trade.