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TL;DR
U.S. stock futures are sharply lower as Iran-U.S. tensions and rising Treasury yields pressure global markets
SPY is down 1.27% pre-market, while QQQ and small caps are leading the selloff
The 30-year Treasury yield moved above 5.1%, increasing pressure on growth and AI-related stocks
NVDA, AMD, TSLA, COIN, and INTC are all sharply lower in pre-market trading
Oil prices are rising on Middle East uncertainty, while silver is crashing nearly 9%
Global markets across Europe and Asia closed red, confirming broad risk-off sentiment
Traders are watching SPY support near $735 and resistance around the $742–$744 gap-fill zone
Elevated volatility and geopolitical uncertainty suggest caution heading into the weekend
Good morning, and welcome to The Daily Setup — your pre-market briefing from TradingDecks.
Here's what happened overnight, what's moving this morning, and what to watch at the bell.
1. THE OPEN — WHERE ARE WE?
It's a risk-off Friday. Iran-U.S. tensions are flaring after Tehran declared it has "no trust" in Washington, BRICS talks collapsed without a joint statement, and oil is spiking on fading peace hopes. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield punched above 5.1%, the highest in nearly a year reminding everyone that rates are still the market's ceiling.
The dominant theme today: geopolitical uncertainty plus a bond market under pressure equals sellers in control heading into the weekend.
2. PRE-MARKET SNAPSHOT
SPY is pointing to a gap-down open at $738.69, off 1.27% from yesterday's $748.17 close. QQQ is leading the damage at -1.84% to $706.57 — tech is getting hit hardest. DIA is down 1.05% to $495.55, and small caps are the ugliest read: IWM is off 2.27% to $277.99, signaling that risk appetite has fully collapsed. Oil (USO) is the lone winner, up 1.94% to $145.77 on Iran headlines. Gold (GLD) is down 3.02% to $414.29, and silver (SLV) is getting crushed — down 8.97% to $68.74, a move that suggests forced liquidation or a macro unwind. BITO is down 2.96% to $10.80. VIXY is up 3.15% to $27.52. Volatility is rising, hedges are being bought, and the cross-asset picture says one thing: stay cautious at the open.
Our take: When silver drops nearly 9% and small caps fall over 2% before the bell, this isn't a dip — it's a broad de-risking session.
3. OVERNIGHT GLOBAL MARKETS
No safe harbor overseas. Japan's EWJ fell 1.21%, Germany's EWG dropped 1.94%, and the UK's EWU shed 2.21%. China via FXI was down 2.39% — the Iran-oil sanctions uncertainty around Chinese buyers is weighing directly on sentiment there. Developed markets ex-U.S. (EFA) fell 1.74% as a bloc. Every major region closed in the red, which means U.S. futures aren't overreacting — they're catching up to a global selloff already in progress.
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4. PRE-MARKET MOVERS
INTC -7.40% to $107.35 — No clear single catalyst, but chip stocks are getting hammered broadly and Intel has no margin for error in this tape. Watch for news.
COIN -7.16% to $196.84 — Crypto is selling off with BITO down nearly 3%, and Coinbase moves with it, amplified.
AMD -4.58% to $429.10 — Follows NVDA lower as the AI trade faces a broad risk-off unwind.
NVDA -3.97% to $226.39 — Significant for sentiment; when NVDA bleeds pre-market, it signals the AI growth premium is getting trimmed.
TSLA -4.02% to $425.49 — No clear catalyst beyond broad growth-stock selling pressure.
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5. TODAY'S EARNINGS ON DECK
No market-moving names before the open today. NXGL (-$0.07 EPS est.), AZ (-$0.17), and ARAI (-$0.12) report BMO — all small-cap, all expected to lose money, none likely to shift broader sentiment. After the close, SHAZ (-$0.89 EPS est.) and SY (-$0.75 EPS est.) headline a long list of micro-caps. On a day already dominated by macro and geopolitics, earnings are background noise.
6. THE SETUP — SPY LEVELS FOR TODAY
SPY opens with a hard gap down — from $748.17 to roughly $738.69, nearly a 10-point gap. Opening bias is clearly bearish. Key support to watch below: $735, a round-number level that represents the next psychological floor. Resistance above is the gap-fill zone near $742–$744 — any early bounce that stalls there confirms the sellers are still in charge. The play: if SPY can't reclaim $742 in the first 30 minutes, expect the tape to probe $735 before noon, especially with vol elevated and bonds still selling off.
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7. ONE-LINE TAKEAWAY
When silver collapses, bonds sell off, and every market on earth closes red, the safest trade heading into the weekend is respect for the downside.
This is for educational purposes only, not financial advice.
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— The TradingDecks Team