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TL;DR
AI stocks and major indexes are still pushing higher, but rising oil and volatility show markets remain uneasy
Iran war tensions and Hormuz supply fears are driving a sharp spike in oil and silver prices
SPY and QQQ are green pre-market, but VIXY rising alongside equities signals growing hidden market stress
Commodity markets are reacting more aggressively to geopolitical risk than equities right now
COIN, TSLA, and INTC are leading pre-market gainers, while GOOGL and NFLX remain under pressure
Europe is lagging global markets as industrial and energy-sensitive sectors react to the commodity shock
Traders are watching whether SPY can hold above $738.50 after the open or fade back into risk-off positioning
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Good morning, and welcome to The Daily Setup — your pre-market briefing from TradingDeck.
Here's what happened overnight, what's moving this morning, and what to watch at the bell.
1. THE OPEN — WHERE ARE WE?
The dominant story this morning is energy, not earnings. The IEA warned overnight that global oil supply will fall below demand this year because of the Iran war — and the market believed it. Trump is heading to China with the Iran standoff unresolved, and shippers are scrambling to navigate the Strait of Hormuz.
Tech is taking the hit while energy gets the bid. That rotation is setting the tone for Wednesday's open.
2. PRE-MARKET SNAPSHOT
SPY is slipping 0.15% to $738.18, barely off yesterday's close of $739.30 — but don't let that small number fool you about the internal damage. QQQ is down 0.85% to $707.24, a meaningful drag that signals this is a tech-led selloff, not broad market weakness. DIA is actually green, up 0.16% to $497.89, which tells you money is rotating toward blue chips and away from growth. Small caps are getting hit hardest — IWM is off 0.97% to $282.57, and when small caps underperform this sharply, risk appetite is contracting. USO is surging 4.07% to $144.30 on the Iran supply shock, while gold softens 0.40% to $432.93. BITO is down 1.43% to $11.04, moving in line with the broader risk-off tone. VIXY dropping 2.33% to $26.77 is the one counterintuitive read — the vol market isn't pricing panic, just pressure.
Our take: This is a rotation session, not a breakdown — but tech bulls need to hold the line at the open.
3. OVERNIGHT GLOBAL MARKETS
Europe led the weakness, with Germany's DAX proxy (EWG) falling 1.39% — the sharpest drop in the overnight session, likely reflecting eurozone energy cost anxiety tied to the Iran conflict. Asia was calmer: Japan's EWJ slipped 0.22% and China's FXI fell 0.37%, suggesting the selloff isn't demand-driven from the East. The UK (EWU) barely moved, down 0.11%.
4. PRE-MARKET MOVERS
INTC is the ugliest print this morning, down 6.82% to $120.61 — no single headline, but semiconductor sentiment is deteriorating fast alongside the broader tech slide. COIN is off 4.14% to $207.64, tracking Bitcoin's risk-off move. TSLA drops 2.60% to $433.45 with no fresh catalyst — it's bleeding with the growth trade. AMD falls 2.29% to $448.29, collateral damage from the chip sector pressure surrounding INTC. On the other side, NFLX pops 2.59% to $87.66 ahead of no scheduled catalyst — no clear driver, watch for news at the open.
5. TODAY'S EARNINGS ON DECK
No market-moving names report before the bell — BUDA (EPS est. $0.03) and SWMR (EPS est. -$0.11) are micro-cap names that won't move the tape. After the close, the AMC roster is long but light on catalysts — EQPT (-$0.24 est.), BTGO (-$0.14 est.), and PROK (-$0.14 est.) headline a list of smaller names with no consensus-driving weight. Today is a macro day, not an earnings day.
6. THE SETUP — SPY LEVELS FOR TODAY
SPY opens with a slight gap down from yesterday's $739.30 close, pointing toward $738 at the bell. The opening bias is mildly bearish with a rotation undercurrent. Key resistance sits at $739.30 — yesterday's close doubles as the line bulls must reclaim to flip the narrative. Support below is $736, the next clean level where buyers showed up earlier this week. The play: if SPY can't reclaim $739 within the first 30 minutes, expect the QQQ drag to pull it toward $736 by midday.
7. ONE-LINE TAKEAWAY
Oil is screaming war premium, tech is cracking under the weight, and the Dow is the only index at the party — choose your side before the bell.
This is for educational purposes only, not financial advice.
— The TradingDecks Team